Israeli-Palestinian peace unlikely

March 27, 2006 —

It is agreeable to imagine a world wherein the most financially, militarily, and culturally preeminent nation-states can transform politically repressive, culturally traditional, and economically underdeveloped societies into New York Times democracies. It is very pleasing to conceive of an international system populated and negotiated by political alchemists.

However cynical, self-serving, and occasionally absurd U.S. foreign policy has been during the course of the last decade, one murky river that American policymakers have carefully navigated is the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Admittedly, the methods they have employed are questionable at best and potentially unlawful at their worst. Specifically, the seemingly contradictory policy of providing monetary assistance to both sides has consistently confounded political analysts. To clarify: the CIA's World Factbook 2005 lists Israel as a recipient of $667 million worth of American economic aid (2004 est.), and Clyde Mark, a Middle East specialist, reported the following to the Congressional Research Service in March 2005:

"1. U.S. economic aid to the Palestinians has averaged about $85 million per year since 1993; there has been no military aid. (See Table 3, page 6)

2. The President has requested $150 million in FY2006 and an additional $200 million in FY2005 supplemental aid for the Palestinians."

This arrangement makes geopolitical sense: supplying both sides privy to the conflict with funds serves as an incentive for each party to "behave" themselves, if you will (although, needless to say, their behavior is not always admirable). The situation enforces - as Kennedy would have it - a hard and bitter peace. However contemptuous and pessimistic the policy is, it gives both Israel and Palestine ample, if not an indefinite, amount of time to reflect. Moreover, it is indicative of the fact that modern policymakers seem to have come to what should have been an obvious realization: building modern nations takes time, blood, and money. The new Iraq is quickly becoming a classic example of this.

Many may find the structure of the U.S.-Israel-Palestine relationship utterly detestable, and on many levels, it truly is. Yet, as the recent Palestinian elections and resulting fallout aptly illustrate, this is a curiously modern civil antagonism, with such a high degree of mutual animosity that, left unresolved and unmediated, could potentially embroil much of the Middle East, and by extension, the U.S. This view contrasts with the traditional wisdom concerning meddling in the civil affairs of foreign peoples; some would assert that interfering in the conflict - especially in the rather ambivalent fashion the U.S. has done - exacerbates rather than diminishes tensions. I think the Arab-Israeli conflict is fundamentally unique, though, and that that maxim simply cannot be applied without risking global conflict.

Of course, there are two recent problems that are seriously complicating the entire scenario: first, the peace process has stalled with Hamas' landslide victory in the most recent elections. Israel has stated that they will not deal with the organization and the U.S. has threatened to suspend monetary aid. Without going so far as to predict what's going to happen, I see American foreign policy specialists emphasizing the wisdom in keeping a steady stream of funds headed in the direction of Palestine. Naturally, this depends on Hamas' willingness to dismantle its paramilitary wing and Israel's patience with the new Palestinian government.

Second, the recent raid on a prison by Israeli forces embarrassed the helpless Palestinians, who were needlessly forced to strip to their underwear when they surrendered. Stupid, politicized military actions like this on the part of Israel can only retard the peace process. If Hamas officially launches or unofficially sponsors a reprisal of any sort against Israel - which would be fairly understandable - some U.S. and Israeli and other foreign policymakers may be encouraged to further isolate Hamas, which may irreparably damage the peace.