Real baseball fans take fantasy seriously

March 26, 2007 —

Sports Editor Andy Hoag along with his fellow fantasy experts Alex Baumgardner and Alex Kohut argue over how to dominate in this year's fantasy baseball season

Hoag: I said it last year and I'll say it this year: if you're looking for one pitcher to lead your fantasy team, Johan Santana is it. He won the AL Triple Crown last year for pitchers. He's getting close to "man crush" territory for me.

Baumgardner: Hoag's man crush aside, I too am a big Santana fan. But let's give the people something they want to hear. I think this could be Jeremy Bonderman's year. If he gets the circle change down like they say he has, he could rack up a serious number of strikeouts, not to mention wins - 20 may be a lofty expectation, but it isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Hoag: 20 wins? Seriously?

Kohut: I think we can all agree on Santana, but Baumgardner's on his own with Bonderman. He's poised to take the next step forward, but 20 wins seems like a stretch. Remember, no pitcher notched 20 victories last season. As a jaded Cubs fan, Carlos Zambrano is one of the few bright spots, even after a season of absurd spending on essentially mediocre players. If they rack up a respectable amount of wins, Zambrano would have a realistic shot at 20 wins. After all, he racked up 16 victories for a team that won a pitiful 66 games last season.

Hoag: Seriously Baumgardner, 20 wins for Bonderman? What's next, 50 homers for Carlos Lee? I agree with Kohut, though; 20 wins for Zambrano is definitely a possibility. But I think last year was the start of a trend; I'm not sure we'll see another 20-game winner this year. Even my boy Santana will be pitching for a Twins team that will not be as good as last year's. And it's all on his shoulders this season because Francisco Liriano is out for the year.

Baumgardner: I agree that most pitchers will be hard-pressed to notch 20 wins in today's league, but the fact of the matter is that Bonderman will be a strong commodity in most fantasy leagues. And Carlos Lee is playing in a park with a fence that I could spit over, so a 40 home run season is not out of the question for him, either. Speaking of home runs, Ryan Howard might not repeat his phenomenal season of a year ago, but I expect him to be a strong home run and RBI producer again this year.

Kohut: I'm not sure Lee will even break 40 home runs this season. He hit a career-high 37 homers last year, but that was while playing in Milwaukee and Texas, two hitters' parks. Before last season, he had never hit more than 32 home runs, despite playing at The Cell in Chicago, another notorious hitters' park. Minute Maid Park in Houston boasts one of the shortest left fields in the big leagues, but that may result in Lee becoming too pull-happy at the plate.

Hoag: Even with the short left field wall, I don't see Lee being one of the top 10 fantasy outfielders this season. Speaking of Howard, first base is awfully deep this season. There have been some so-called fantasy "experts" who have said it is better to draft high at other positions, such as shortstop or second base, than at first base, just because of the high number of quality hitters there. You've got Howard, David Ortiz, Albert Pujols, Justin Morneau (last year's AL MVP), Carlos Delgado. The list goes on and on, and I can see the experts' point. I'd much rather have a great fantasy second baseman like Chase Utley and a lower first-tier first baseman like Derrek Lee than be stuck with Texas' Ian Kinsler at second. The strategy involved there is what makes fantasy baseball so interesting.

Baumgardner: I agree. Too often fantasy gamers fall in love with power numbers. You've got to remember that home runs and RBIs are only two of many stat categories that you need to fill. Stocking up at positions with a smaller pool of offensive talent is a smart strategy. Second base is one of those positions, and Utley, along with the emerging Robinson Cano are two good picks at that position. Catcher is another spot where a good offensive player may be hard to come by. Last season's AL batting champ Joe Mauer is a terrific option there, along with Atlanta's Brian McCann. Both had breakout campaigns in '06, and if they stay healthy, you can expect the same out of them again in '07.

Kohut: Without being too redundant, after securing a superstar starting pitcher, the best strategy is to secure spots for positions like shortstop, second base, and catcher, before filling the other voids. The roster management doesn't end after the draft, though, as there's always the matter of scooping up breakout stars once the season has begun. Being familiar with prospects can help you pick up some gems. I picked up Francisco Liriano last season when it was announced he was being shifted to the starting rotation, which yielded huge dividends for me later.

Hoag: Roster management is where leagues are won and lost. That might explain why I win most of the leagues I participate in. But I'm not trying to toot my own horn here.

Baumgardner: I better chime in and say something before Hoag's ego takes up the entire page. It is a smart idea to keep up on young talent, but you've also got to be careful of who you pick up off waivers. It is easy to fall for a guy who has had a hot week at the plate.

Kohut: That about sums it up. We may not agree on all players or strategies, but for the most part we can agree Jeremy Bonderman will not win 20 games.

Hoag: Seriously, Baumgardner. 20 wins?

Think you're better than these guys? Join their league "Vanguard Fantasy Baseball" at Yahoo! Sports. Send an e-mail to atbaumga@svsu.edu for more details. Just don't pick Bonderman.